2100

Global Warming Forecasts - 2100

Deaths - Global Warming

2100.  As many as 1400 heat-related deaths projected for Los Angeles by 2100.  “A fresh look at California's climate future suggests some profound changes may be coming as global warming takes hold, including extended heat waves in Los Angeles, disrupted ecosystems in the mountains and chaos in California's water-supply system. [In their study, Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, which was published online Monday, August 16, 2004] in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers] adapted two of the latest computer models [Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively] of global climate change to determine how California might be affected under two different scenarios -- one optimistic [B1] and one pessimistic [A1fi] -- for emissions of heat- trapping greenhouse gases. 

. . .Daily life in Los Angeles already [2004] includes about a dozen ‘heat-wave days’ a year, defined as three or more days in a row when temperatures climb above 90 degrees. Under the worst-case heating outlook, there would be as many as 95 such days by the end of the century [2100], producing about 1,400 more heat-related deaths.”  (Carl T. Hall, Chronicle Science Writer, “California - Global warming clouds the future - But experts say it's not too late to cut harmful emissions,” San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco, California, August 17, 2004 citing findings in (Katherine Hayhoe et al, Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, August 24, 2004, Vol. 101 No. 34, pp. 12422–12427) 

Heat Waves

. . .Daily life in Los Angeles already [2004] includes about a dozen ‘heat-wave days’ a year, defined as three or more days in a row when temperatures climb above 90 degrees. Under the worst-case heating outlook, there would be as many as 95 such days by the end of the century [2100], producing about 1,400 more heat-related deaths.”  (Carl T. Hall, Chronicle Science Writer, “California - Global warming clouds the future - But experts say it's not too late to cut harmful emissions,” San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco, California, August 17, 2004 citing findings in (Katherine Hayhoe et al, Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, August 24, 2004, Vol. 101 No. 34, pp. 12422–12427)

Sea Level Rise Due to Global Warming

Cost of Climate Change

2100.  Protecting developed areas of U.S. coastlines from a 1-meter sea level rise projected to cost $73 billion to 111 billion through 2100.  “Published estimates of sea level rise due to global warming generally range from 0.5 to 2.0 meters (1.5 to 7 feet) by 2100.  Sea level rise could be greater than or less than this range because uncertainties exist regarding the rate of atmospheric warming, glacial processes, oceanic uptake of heat, precipitation in polar areas, and other variables. . . . Given the high property values of developed coastlines in the United States, it is likely that measures would be taken to hold back the sea along most developed shores. 

Preliminary estimates suggest that the cumulative capital cost (including response to current sea level rise) of protecting currently developed areas would be $73 to $111 billion (in 1988 dollars) through 2100 for a 1-meter global rise (compared with $4 to $6 billion to protect developed areas from current trends in sea level rise). A 1-meter sea level rise would lead to a cumulative inundation of 7,000 square miles of dryland -- an area the size of Massachusetts (see Table 1, p. xxxvii of report). If the oceans continue to rise at current rates, approximately 3,000 square miles of dryland would be lost.” (U.S. EPA, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States,  EPA-230-05-89-050, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, December 1989, p. xxxvi)

Agriculture 

2100.  California’s agriculture and vineyards could vanish by 2100.  “We're looking at a scenario where there's no more agriculture in California. California's farms and vineyards could vanish by the end of the century [2100], and its major cities could be in jeopardy, if Americans do not act to slow the advance of global warming.”  (U.S. Secretary of Energy and Nobel-prize-winning physicist, Steven Chu quoted in Jim Tankersley, “California farms, vineyards in peril from warming, U.S. energy secretary warns,” Los Angeles Times, February 4, 2009)

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We have already reached a tipping point where we will soon see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer. 

There's nothing we can do about that. It could be in 2015.  It could be in 2025.  It almost doesn't matter.  It'll happen in this generation. 

As a result, the whole weather system could change. (1)

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