2070

2070 Global Warming Climate Change  Forecasts

Heat Waves - 2070

2070 to 2099.  Annual number of heat wave days in Los Angeles projected to increase from 12 days to 44 – 95 days for the period 2070 – 2099.  “Analyses of U.S. climate change scenarios through General Circulation Models (GCMs) project that . . . the number of annual heatwave days in Los Angeles, for the 2070 to 2099 time period, will increase from 12 to 44–95." (George Luber, MA, PhD, Michael McGeehin, PhD, MSPH, “Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008;35(5):429–435, November 2008, p. 431)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions - 2070

2070.  Year scientists believe Earth must be a carbon-neutral planet. “Most of us think that by the year 2070 we need to have a carbon-neutral planet. We can no longer increase the CO2 content of the atmosphere.” (Wallace Broecker interviewed by Kenneth R. Fletcher, “How to stop global warming? CO2 ‘scrubbers,’ a new book says,” Smithsonian Magazine, June 2008)

Ice Free Arctic | Arctic Melting  

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It's always dangerous to make predictions, but we are right on schedule’ for [the disappearance in 2070 of summer Arctic sea ice] to occur.” (1)

 — Mark Serreze, Senior research scientist
National Snow and Ice Data Center
Boulder, Colorado, March 2006 

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2070.  Arctic projected to be entirely ice-free by 2070.  “Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge University.  ‘When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the over-optimistic side,’ he said.  As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.  

‘If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback,’ he said.  Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it from heating up. Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions for the climate, he said. "There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said. ‘You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big impact on other climate parameters,’ he said.” (Steve Connor, Science Editor, “Global warming 'past the point of no return',” The Independent, Friday, 16 September 2005)

See more recent forecasts of Arctic climate change and an ice free Arctic ocean.

2070.  Arctic sea ice could completely disappear during the summer as early as 2070.  “U.S. scientists said Monday [October 4, 2004] that the extent of Arctic sea ice, the floating mass of ice that covers the Arctic Ocean, is continuing its rapid decline.  Researchers at the [University of Colorado at Boulder's - CU Boulder - National Snow and Ice Data Center] said latest satellite information indicates the September 2004 sea ice extent was 13.4 percent below average, a reduction in area nearly twice the size of Texas.  In 2002, the decline in arctic sea ice during September -- which traditionally marks the end of the summer melt season -- was about 15 percent, a record low.  Sea-ice decline during September has averaged about 8 percent over the past decade, researchers said, and current computer models suggest the sea ice could completely disappear during the summer as early as 2070.” (“Summer Arctic Sea Ice In Decline,” United Press International, Monday, October 4, 2004 citing reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, “Arctic Sea Ice Declines,” October 4, 2004.  See also Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis)

Climate Change Flooding

2070.  Number of people exposed to coastal flooding could more than triple by 2070 from 40 million to 150 million worldwide.  “The impact of climate change and urban development could more than triple the number of people around the world exposed to coastal flooding by 2070, with Kolkata being the most vulnerable city followed by Mumbai, a new report [Ranking of the World's Cities Most Exposed to Coastal Flooding Today and in the Future] said.  The report, prepared by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), said by 2070, Kolkata will be the most vulnerable with the exposed population expected to increase over seven times to more than 14 million people. 

Over the coming decades, the unprecedented growth and development of the Asian mega-cities will be a key factor in driving the increase in coastal flood risk globally, it said adding, in terms of population exposure, Kolkata is closely followed by Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok and Yangon (Myanmar).  Miami is in ninth place and would be the only top ten city in a currently developed country, while Hai Phong in Vietnam is ranked tenth. 

Around half of the total population exposure to coastal flooding caused by storm surge and damage from high winds is contained in just ten cities today.

Mumbai has the highest number of people exposed to coastal flooding.  Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes, it found that around 150 million people could be exposed to a one-in-100 year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 40 million today. The estimated financial impact of such an event would also rise USD 35 trillion by 2070, up from USD 3 trillion today.” (Dharam Shourie, “By 2070, Kolkata,Mumbai to be most vulnerable to coastal flood,”  PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., New York, December 5, 2007) 

Snowpack Levels and Global Warming

 2070.  Complete disappearance of snowpacks in the northern Rocky Mountains by 2070.  “Fyfe and Flato (1999) modeled the effects of climate change on snowpacks in the northern Rocky Mountains during the 21st century. Their simulations showed shrinking snowpacks during the first two-thirds of the century with complete disappearance by 2070. They based their simulations in part on the Canadian Coupled Global Circulation Model which projects higher temperature increases than the British Hadley Circulation Model (Table 3.8).”  Snow pack, snow cover.  (Frederic H. Wagner et al, Preparing for a Changing Climate - The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Climate Change Assessment, A Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Utah State University, 2003, p. 139) 

Economic Impacts of Climate Change - 2070 

2070.  Projected worst case global warming temperatures make all of Australia’s ski resorts unable to operate at a profit by 2070.  “Many low altitude ski resorts face economic hardship and even ruin as a result of global warming, a new study [Climate Change and Winter Sports: Environmental and Economical Threats] launched today by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) concludes.  Experts at the University of Zurich say that the levels of snow falling in lower lying mountain areas will become increasingly unpredictable and unreliable over the coming decades. . . . The internationally celebrated winter sports town of Kitzbuehl [Austria], popular among the rich and famous, faces extinction as a top ski resort. Kitzbuehl is an example of a resort lying at the low altitude of 760 metres [2,493 feet], a height that will make it acutely vulnerable to declining and less frequent snow.  

The study says that ski resorts in North America and Australia will be impacted too. Indeed, none of Australia’s ski resorts will be economically viable by 2070 under a worst case scenario.  (Under a worst case scenario, in which temperatures climb by 3.4 degrees C by 2070, none of Australia’s existing ski resorts would be operating at a profit.)  The findings have come from Rolf Burki and colleagues at the University of Zurich. They are being presented today at the V World Conference on Sport and the Environment taking place in Turin, Italy, which is the host city for the 2006 Winter Games. . . . The research has used temperature forecasts produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of some 2,000 scientists.

. . . The IPCC estimates that temperatures will rise by between 1.4 degrees C and 5.8 degrees C by 2100 unless action is taken to significantly reduce emissions from sources such as vehicles, industry, offices and homes.  Global warming is expected to be stronger on land areas in the northern hemisphere during the winter months, making mountain-based winter tourism acutely vulnerable.” (“Many Ski Resorts Heading Downhill as a Result of Global Warming,” United Nations Environment Programme, Turin/Nairobi, Africa, December 2, 2003 citing findings in Rolf Bürki, Hans Elsasser, Bruno Abegg, Climate Change and Winter Sports: Environmental and Economical Threats, 5th World Conference on Sport and Environment, Turin, Italy, United Nations Environment Programme, December 2-3, 2003)

2070.  Complete disappearance of snowpacks in the northern Rocky Mountains by 2070.  “Fyfe and Flato (1999) modeled the effects of climate change on snowpacks in the northern Rocky Mountains during the 21st century. Their simulations showed shrinking snowpacks during the first two-thirds of the century with complete disappearance by 2070. They based their simulations in part on the Canadian Coupled Global Circulation Model which projects higher temperature increases than the British Hadley Circulation Model (Table 3.8).” (Frederic H. Wagner et al, Preparing for a Changing Climate - The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Climate Change Assessment, A Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Utah State University, 2003, p. 139) 

Animals and Global Warming Extinction

2070.  By 2070 large numbers of kangaroos in Australia to be wiped out under projected increased global warming temperatures of 2 – 6 degrees Celsius.  “An increase in daily temperature of only two degrees Celsius could wipe out large numbers of kangaroos in Australia, according to a new study [Australia’s Savanna Herbivores: Bioclimatic Distributions and an Assessment of the Potential Impact of Regional Climate Change].  

‘Our study provides evidence that climate change has the capacity to cause the possible extinction of one (kangaroo) species in northern Australia,’ wrote Euan G. Ritchie and Elizabeth E. Bolitho of James Cook University.

Ritchie and Bolitho used computer modelling and three years of field observations to predict how temperature changes over the next half-century might affect four species of kangaroos. They found that a temperature increase as miniscule as a half-degree Celsius may shrink kangaroos' geographic ranges.  

An increase of two degrees may halve kangaroo population. A six-degree increase might shrink ranges by 96 per cent. 

Ritchie said that generally accepted climate models predict temperatures in northern Australia to be between 0.4 and two degrees warmer by 2030, and between two and six degrees warmer by 2070.”  (Meghna Menon, “Slight Rise In Temperature Could Halve Kangaroo Population,” The Hindustan Times, October 16, 2008 citing findings in Euan G. Ritchie and Elizabeth E. Bolitho, Australia’s Savanna Herbivores: Bioclimatic Distributions and an Assessment of the Potential Impact of Regional Climate Change, Physiological and Biochemical Zoology, 81(6):880–890. 2008) 

Ozone Layer 2070

2070.  Ozone layer predicted to be back to its 1980 level by 2070.  "Our current predictions right now [are] that . . . [f]or about the next ten years or so [2007 - 2017], we'll see very large ozone holes.  Then after about 2017 or 2018 in there, [the ozone holes will] start getting smaller and smaller and smaller.  By 2070 [the ozone layer] should be back to a 1980 level."  (Dr. Paul Newman, senior atmospheric physicist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, quoted in Maria Frostic, Exploring Ozone, Ozone Resource Page, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC, October 19, 2007, Track 1:57) 

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Climate Change 2070 - Global Warming 2070