Global Warming Climate Change Forecasts - 2030
2030. World population projected by the United Nations to reach 8.3 billion by 2030. 8,308,895 world population projected for 2030. (Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations Plaza, New York City, New York, Friday, April 30, 2010)
2030. U.S. Census Bureau projects U.S. population to reach 373.5 million by 2030. 373,504,000. Resident population as of July 1. (U.S. Census Bureau, "Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050," National Population Projections, Released 2008, Based on Census 2000, Population Division, 866-758-1060, Washington, DC, retrieved August 27, 2010)
Droughts and Global Warming 2030
2030. Permanent drought projected for 2030 with annual rainfall decline of 20 percent in Georgia and southeastern U.S. “As soon as 2030, annual rainfall in the Southeast declines by 20 percent under the Canadian [global warming] scenario, a devastating permanent drought that would reduce streams like this to a relative trickle. Most of the lush North Georgia mountains, dominated by red oaks, rhododendrons, pines and mountain laurel, would become open savannas much like those in Florida.” (Jay Bookman, Staff, “Global Warming In Georgia: Southern-fried Forecast - Will climate changes be mild or dire? The latest news is chilling,” The Atlanta Journal Constitution, Atlanta, Georgia, July 29, 2001, p. B1 citing findings in a April 2001 report published by the National Science and Technology Council)
Heat Waves 2030
2030s. Stanford study projects that during the 2030s most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico could endure at least seven seasons of intense heat waves. "According to [Stanford University] climate models, an intense heat wave – equal to the longest on record from 1951 to 1999 – is likely to occur [more than five times during the 2030s]. . . . ‘Occurrence of the longest historical heat wave further intensifies in the 2030-2039 period, including greater than five occurrences per decade over much of the western U.S. and greater than three exceedences per decade over much of the eastern U.S.,’ the authors [Noah Diffenbaugh and Moetasim Ashfaq] wrote. . . . From 2030 to 2039, most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico could endure at least seven seasons equally as intense as the hottest season ever recorded between 1951 and 1999, the researchers concluded [in their study Intensification of hot extremes in the United States]. . . .
The researchers also determined that the hottest daily temperatures of the year from 1980 to 1999 are likely to occur at least twice as often across much of the U.S during the decade of the 2030s. ‘By the decade of the 2030s, we see persistent, drier conditions over most of the U.S.,’ Diffenbaugh said. . . . Besides harming human health and agriculture, these hot, dry conditions could lead to more droughts and wildfires in the near future, he said.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, N., and M. Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, August 6, 2010)
Number of Extremely Hot Seasons Per Decade, 2030-2039
Projected heat for U.S. -- Source: Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, Aug., 6, 2010
Climate Change Deaths | Global Warming Deaths 2030
2030. Worldwide annual death toll from climate change projected to reach 500,000 people per year by 2030. “Climate change today accounts for more than 300,000 deaths throughout the world each year, officials of humanitarian group in Switzerland said. Former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi A. Annan, president of the Global Humanitarian Forum, released the report [The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis] on the human impact of climate change in London Friday. Increasingly severe heat waves, storms, floods and forest fires will cause greater hunger, disease and poverty, the report said, and by 2030 will bring the annual death toll from climate change to half a million [500,000] people a year.
The report, the first comprehensive study of the effects of climate chance on people, said that climate change already seriously affects 325 million people every year, a number that may double [650 million] in 20 years . The Global Humanitarian Forum commissioned Dalberg Global Development Advisers to develop the report by collating all relevant information and current statistics relating to the human impact of climate change.” Climate change deaths. (“Global warming accounts for 300,000 deaths,” UPI, London, England, May 29, 2010 citing findings in Global Humanitarian Forum, Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Geneva, Switzerland, 2009)
China Oil Consumption Projections 2030
2031. Based on current 8% annual growth rate China projected to consume 99 million barrels of oil per day by 2031 -- more than total worldwide oil production in 2007. “[Lester Brown] puts it this way. If China keeps growing at 8% each year (which is actually an underestimation of China’s growth), by the year 2031 the per capita income of what will be then 1.45 billion Chinese will be the same as America’s today . If we assume than Chinese consumption levels per person in 2031 will be the same as those in America today, then China’s projected population of 1.45 [billion] people alone would consume an amount of grain equal to two-thirds of the current world grain harvest. China’s paper consumption would be double current world production and China would consume 99 million barrels of oil per day. The world right now is only producing 84 [million barrels per day]. And if Chinese each have three cars for every four people just like we do, in 2031 China will have a car fleet of 1.3 billion vehicles.” (Thomas L. Friedman, "Green is the New Red White and Blue," and "Energy Crossroads: Building a Coalition for a Clean, Prosperous, and Secure Energy Future," Keynote Address at Memorial Auditorium, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, Friday, March 2, 2007) See list of books by Thomas Friedman. Listen to Ira Flatow’s NPR interview, China's Growing Impact on the Earth, with Lester Brown.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2030
2030. China is projected to account for about half of the increase in global GHG emissions through 2030. “There is no solution to climate change without China. China is responsible for about 20 percent of global greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions. It is projected to account for about half of the increase of global emissions through 2030.” (Dr. Michael A. Levi, “China Goes Global,” YouTube Video of China 2025 Conference, Co-sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and Project 2049, Washington DC, October 19, 2009)
2030. China projected to account for 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. “[China is projected to account for 30 percent [of global greenhouse gas emissions] if it goes along business-as-usual by 2030. [China is] also essential to a global solution because of concerns about competitiveness. If emissions are reduced, if emissions are regulated in much of the world but not in China, some emissions creating activities will relocate to China. That is an overstated claim sometimes but there is some truth to it. Regardless of the substantive truth in it, it’s widely believed which means that at least for emissions-cutting efforts in developed countries to be politically sustainable, there needs to be strong and visible efforts from China as well.” (Dr. Michael A. Levi, “China Goes Global,” YouTube Video of China 2025 Conference, Co-sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and Project 2049, Washington DC, October 19, 2009)
2030. McKinsey projection that the U.S. could reduce 3 to 4.5 gigatons of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 using tested approaches and emerging technologies. “The United States could reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by 3.0 to 4.5 gigatons of CO2e [carbon dioxide equivalent of greenhouse gases] using tested approaches and high-potential emerging technologies. These reductions would involve pursuing a wide array of abatement options available at marginal costs less than $50 per ton, with the average net cost to the economy being far lower if the nation can capture sizable gains from energy efficiency.” (Jon Creyts, Anton Derkach, Scott Nyquist, Ken Ostrowski and Jack Stephenson, McKinsey & Company, The Conference Board, “Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How much at what cost?,” U.S. Greenhouse Gas Abatement Mapping Initiative, Executive Report, December 2007, p. ix) View McKinsey video presentation.
Glaciers Melting and Global Warming - 2030
2030. Most icecaps and glaciers projected to disappear from tropical Africa mountains by 2030. “Current trends suggest that most glaciers will disappear . . . from the mountains of tropical Africa by 2030.” (“Impacts of Climate Change Coming Faster and Sooner: New Science Report Underlines Urgency for Governments to Seal the Deal in Copenhagen,” Washington, DC, September 24, 2009 citing findings in Catherine P. McMullen and Jason Jabbour, editors, "Climate Change Science Compendium 2009,” United Nations Environment Programme, Washington, DC, Nairobi, Kenya, September 2009, p. 15 citing findings of Eggermont et al. 2007, Hastenrath 2009)
Ice Free Arctic | Arctic Melting 2030
Arctic summers may be almost free of sea ice by 2030 or sooner. “In
fact, scientists say global warming's influence is already visible and
it could get worse within decades if no action is taken. The average
number of heat-wave deaths in Chicago
could more than double by 2050, and killer heat waves in Europe could
also increase by that time, experts say. Arctic summers may be almost
free of sea ice by 2030 or sooner, they say.” Ice free Arctic summers. (“Global Warming A Tough Sell For The Human Psyche,” The Associated Press, New York, December 17, 2009)
Rising Sea Levels - 2030
2030. California sea levels expected to rise up to one foot by 2030. “Sea levels along the California coast are expected to rise up to 1 foot [2 inches to 12 inches] in 20 years , 2 feet by 2050 and as much as 5 1/2 feet by the end of the century , climbing slightly more than the global average and increasing the risk of flooding and storm damage, a new study says. That's because much of California is sinking, extending the reach of a sea that is warming and expanding because of climate change, according to a report by a committee of scientists released Friday [June 22, 2012] by the National Research Council. . . . The report, commissioned by California, Oregon, Washington and several federal agencies, is the closest look yet at how global warming — which causes ocean water to expand and ice to melt — will raise sea levels along the West Coast. . . .
Although the rise in sea levels will happen gradually, [Gary Griggs, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at UC Santa Cruz and a member of the committee that produced the report] said, its destructive power will be felt first when storms hit vulnerable places such as Newport Beach and the San Francisco Bay. ‘In the short term it's these severe storms in low-lying areas that are most problematic,’ Griggs said.” (Tony Barboza, “California sea levels to rise 5-plus feet this century, study says,” Los Angeles Times, Sunday, June 24, 2012 reporting findings of Committee on Sea Level Rise, Dalrymple et al, Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, Friday, June 22, 2012) See video.
Climate Change Tipping Points 2030
A study into the speed at which the permafrost is melting suggests that the tipping point will occur between 2020 and 2030 and will mark the point at which the Arctic turns from being a net ‘sink’ for carbon dioxide into an overall source that will accelerate global warming, they said. . . .
‘Our research shows that the release of carbon from permafrost will result in an irreversible climate tipping point in only 20 years... Once the frozen carbon thaws out and decays, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost,’ [Dr. Kevin Schaefer of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado] said.” (Steve Connor, Science Editor, “Melting of the Arctic 'will accelerate climate change within 20 years', The Independent, Monday, May 30, 2011 reporting findings in Kevin Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew P. Barrett. Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming, Tellus B, 2011; DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x)
Methane Outgassing From Permafrost
Climate Change, Food Security and Food Supply 2030
2030. Phosphate supplies expected to peak around 2030. “A leading soil scientist believes that more than 50% of the UK's total phosphate requirement could come from organic sources - saving the agricultural industry £20-30m a year. . . Prof [Brian] Chambers, of ADAS [an environmental consulting firm], has warned of devastating consequences to the world's food supply if supplies of the fertiliser, which is crucial to agriculture, start to dwindle. . . . Western Europe imports all of its phosphate for agricultural use. But Prof Chambers believes the government could respond to the threat by recovering phosphate from organic waste [e.g., food waste] that often ends up being sent to landfill - and processing it through [anaerobic digestion or AD] plants instead. ‘Our primary source of phosphate, rock phosphate, is imported into the UK for agricultural use and it is becoming increasingly expensive," said Prof Chambers, head of ADAS's soils and nutrients team. Supplies are expected to peak around 2030 and, unlike oil, there is no substitute for phosphorus. A shortage of phosphorus at the time when we need to be doubling our food supply could be disastrous.’” (Philip Case, “ADAS scientist warns of looming phosphate shortage,” Farmers Weekly Interactive, Friday July 23, 2010)
2030. Food prices projected to double by 2030 due to worsening climate change and resource scarcity. “New research commissioned [by Oxfam International] paints a grim picture of what a future of worsening climate change and increasing resource scarcity holds for hunger. It predicts international price rises of key staples in the region of 120 to 180 per cent by 2030. This will prove disastrous for food importing poor countries, and raises the prospect of a wholesale reversal in human development. . . . The warning signs are clear. Surging and unstable international food prices, growing conflicts over water, the increased exposure of vulnerable populations to drought and floods are all symptoms of a crisis that may soon become permanent: food prices are forecast to increase by something in the range of 70 to 90 per cent by 2030 before the effects of climate change, which will roughly the double price rises again” (Robert Bailey, Growing a Better Future, Oxfam International, Oxford, United Kingdom, June 2011, pp. 7, 12)
Food Prices Projected for 2030
2030. Crop yields for rice, wheat and corn projected to start declining significantly as result of climate change. “Results from a new study [A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," published March 16 by the journal Nature Climate Change], show global warming of only 2 degrees Celsius will be detrimental to three essential food crops [rice, maize/corn and wheat] in temperate and tropical regions. And beginning in the 2030s, yields from those crops will start to decline significantly. …[T]he study was able to create the largest dataset to date on crop responses, with more than double the number of studies that were available for researchers to analyze for the previous IPCC Assessment Report in 2007 [IPCC 4th Assessment Report].
…'Our research shows that crop yields will be negatively affected by climate change much earlier than expected,' said Andy Challinor, University of Leeds professor and lead author of the study. ‘Furthermore, the impact of climate change on crops will vary both from year to year and from place to place – with the variability becoming greater as the weather becomes increasingly erratic.’ The researchers conclude that, on aggregate, we will see an increasingly negative impact of climate change on crop yields from the 2030s onward. The impact will be greatest in the second half of the century, when decreases of more than 25 percent will become increasingly common.” (ASU News 2014, “New research shows climate change will reduce crop yields sooner than expected,” ASU News, March 25, 2014 announcing findings in Nature Climate Change 2014, Andy Challinor, Netra Chhetri et al, “A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation,” Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2153, March 16, 2014)
2030. Global food demand projected to increase by 50 percent by 2030. “The World Bank
estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a
result of growing world population, rising affluence, and the shift to
Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class. Lack of access to
stable supplies of water is reaching critical proportions, particularly
for agricultural purposes, and the problem will worsen because of rapid
urbanization worldwide and the roughly 1.2 billion persons to be added
over the next 20 years. Today , experts consider 21 countries,
with a combined population of about 600 million, to be either cropland
or freshwater scarce. Owing to continuing population growth, 36
countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are projected to fall into
this category by 2025.” (National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, November 2008, p. viii)
2030. South Asia and southern Africa could face growing food shortages due to climate change by 2030. “Impoverished farmers in South Asia and southern Africa could face growing food shortages due to climate change within just 20 years, a new study [Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030] says. . . . The researchers used computer models to predict changes in temperature and rainfall as the planet warms. Most of the 12 regions were predicted to warm up about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by 2030—about the same amount of warming that Earth as a whole experienced over the 20th century. [The overall analysis [suggested] that southern Africa and South Asia were two spots where hotter temperatures and lack of water are most likely to stress crops. . . . In southern Africa, corn (also known as maize) is a major crop, but it will suffer especially, the study suggests.
[David Lobell, Stanford University lead author of the study]. and colleagues predict about a 30 percent drop in corn yields there, along with a 15 percent drop in wheat yields, and smaller drops for soybeans and sugarcane. They predict a small increase in rice yields for the southern Africa, and little change for sorghum or cassava. In South Asia, on the other hand, almost every major crop would suffer a decline of about 5 to 10 percent, with only soybeans experiencing a slight gain in yields, the study predicts. Changing which crops are cultivated in these areas could help populations cope with climate change, the authors argue.” (David Lobell, Fellow at Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University quoted in Mason Inman, “Warming May Cause Crop Failures, Food Shortages by 2030,” National Geographic News – National Geographic Magazine, January 31, 2008 reporting findings from David B. Lobell, Marshall B. Burke, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Walter P. Falcon, Rosamond L. Naylor, "Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030," DOI: 10.1126/science.1152339, Science, Vol. 319. no. 5863, February 1, 2008, pp. 607 – 610)
2030. A 10% to 30% decrease in non-irrigated soybean yields projected to occur in the Southeastern U.S. by 2030. “The Southeast [Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, Kentucky and Florida] is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change [because of its expansive coastline and agricultural economy], and the effects could include more heat waves, shrinking wildlife populations and damage to trees, according to a draft of a new report [Climate Change Impacts in the Southeastern United States, Draft Discussion Paper] from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. . . .
According to the report, the Southeast is vulnerable because it has the most coastline to lose in the United States — 41 percent of the area in the lower 48 states exposed to sea level rise and intensified hurricanes. . . . The region also could face the largest losses of crops in the nation. Consultants predict a 10- to 30-percent decrease of non-irrigated soybean yields by about 2030, and an 80 percent loss by 2090.” (Pam Sohn and Jaime Sarrio, “Southeast may be vulnerable to worst of global warming's effects,” The Tennessean, Chattanooga, Tennessee, July 22, 2010 citing findings in Dr. Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Dr. Kristie Ebi, Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom, Dr. Paul Kirshen, Stratus Consulting, "Climate Change Impacts in the Southeastern United States, Draft Discussion Paper," prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, January 26, 2010)
2030. Food security issues in 2030 will create war, unrest and mass migration. “The Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government, John Beddington, tells us that food security issues will create the ‘perfect storm’ by 2030 and that this ‘storm’ will create war, unrest and mass migration.” (Ian Goodwin, Chairman, Seale-Hayne Future Group, “Food security issues will create the ‘perfect storm’ by 2030,” Western Morning News, The Plymouth, United Kingdom, May 12, 2009)
Climate Change Costs | Cost of Global Warming 2030
2030. Climate change could cost up to 5% of global GDP by 2030 if effective steps are not taken. “World renowned Indian environmentalist R K Pachauri has warned the international business and political leaders that climate change could cost up to 5 per cent of global GDP by 2030 if effective steps were not taken in time. ‘The business and political leaders should realise that measures to bring down emission levels would not cost more than 0.2 per cent of the global GDP, but it could cost up to 3 per cent of world GDP by 2020, and 5 per cent by 2030, if the temperature goes by 2-4 degree Celsius,’ the head of the UN's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on climate change said.” (R K Pachauri, addressing the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland quoted in Manoj Kumar, “Climate change may cost 5 pc global GDP by 2030: Pachauri,” PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., January 24, 2008)
2030. Estimated additional global investment of up to $210 billion required in 2030 to reduce GHG emissions. “It is estimated that global additional investment and financial flows of USD 200–210 billion will be necessary in 2030 to return global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to current levels.” (Report on the analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change, United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention, Fourth workshop, Vienna, Austria, Dialogue working paper 8, August 8, 2007)
2030. Annual costs of $67 billion projected for 2030 to cover the food supply, intrastructure and health care relief costs caused by rising sea levels. “Rising sea levels are likely to prompt mass migrations, armed conflicts and sanitary crises, requiring urgent planning to guarantee food and other essentials and at least $67 billion annually in 2030 to help people in developing countries adapt to climate change, the United Nations said in a report to a conference on climate change in Vienna. The money is needed to ensure access to food supplies, health care and infrastructure.” (Bloomberg News “Conflicts, crises foreseen - UN says rising sea levels from global warming will stir mass migrations, tensions; urges urgent planning,” Newsday, Long Island, New York, August 31, 2007, p. A40)
2030. Global warming projected to add as much $6.1 billion in repair and replacement costs to Alaska’s infrastructure by 2030. “Many of Alaska's roads, runways, railroads and water and sewer systems will wear out more quickly and cost more to repair or replace because of climate change, according to a study released yesterday. Higher temperatures, melting permafrost, a reduction in polar ice and increased flooding are expected to raise the repair and replacement cost of thousands of infrastructure projects as much as $6.1 billion for a total of nearly $40 billion - about a 20 percent increase - from now to 2030, according to the study, by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage.
. . . The study is the first of its kind in Alaska, and its authors emphasize that it does not project costs for things like moving villages, protecting the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, fighting wildfires or protecting private property that may be affected. ‘There are a million other issues related to climate change,’ said Peter Larsen, a natural resource economist at the Institute for Social and Economic Research and the lead researcher for the report.” (“Study Sees Climate Change Impact on Alaska,” The New York Times, June 28, 2007 citing findings in Peter Larsen, Principal Investigator, O. Scott Goldsmith, ISER-UAA, Orson Smith, UAA-Engineering, Meghan Wilson, ISER-UAA, Ken Strzepek, U. of Colorado-Engineering, Paul Chinowsky, U. of Colorado-Engineering, and Ben Saylor, ISER-UAA, Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change, Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, June 2007, pp. 1, 7, 69, 74, 81)
2030. Permafrost melting by 2030 could cause severe damage to Russian defense infrastructure, assets and resources. “Defense infrastructure, including key airfields, oil storage facilities and strategic oil reservoirs, could all be destroyed if the hard permafrost covering the ground year-round across Russia's far north melts by 2030, Russia's First Deputy Emergencies Minister Ruslan Tsalikov told the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, Thursday. Tsalikov described as a catastrophe the damage that would result from widespread permafrost melting, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. Russia's widespread coniferous forests also could be inundated by flooding and unprecedented warmer weather triggered by climate change, Tsalikov said. If the annual temperature rises by one or two degrees ... the permafrost could decrease 50 percent, Tsalikov said."
"The risk of flooding would also double, he said, according to the RIA Novosti report. Global warming could also cost Russia its huge supplies of methane gas trapped beneath the permafrost, believed to be almost one third of the entire world's reserves, RIA Novosti said. The news agency said West Siberia's permafrost was currently disappearing at the rate of 4 centimeters per year. That would cause the permafrost's southern boundaries to retreat by an average of nearly 50 miles across northern Russia over the next 20 years [2010-2030], the report said.” (Martin Sieff, UPI News Service, “Russia Defense Watch: Melting ice menace,” UPI International Intelligence, June 23, 2008)
Climate Change Floods | Global Warming Flooding - 2030
2030. Flooding may increase 50 percent in West Africa and quadruple in Central and South America by 2030. “Climate change is expected to increase the severity of storms, especially ones associated with cyclical events such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Flooding is the most common weather disaster, responsible for the deaths of about 100,000 people and the displacement of 1.2 billion from 1992 to 2001. The worsening of this hazard will vary by region. It is expected to change little in Southeast Asia by 2030, but it may increase 50 percent in West Africa and quadruple in Central and South America. In addition to storms, rising oceans threaten coastal populations. Of the world's 20 megacities, 13 are at sea level. Storm surges, while short-lived, can cause permanent damage, eroding land and damaging water supplies and cropland with saltwater.” (David Brown, Washington Post Staff Writer, “As temperatures rise, health could decline as scientists confront climate change, disease issues studied,” The Washington Post, Washington, DC, Monday, December 17, 2007, p. A07)
Other Events, Forecasts and Projections Converging in 2030
2030. 15 million older adults with mental illness projected for 2030. “Numerous
studies have repeatedly confirmed the increasing incidence of mental
illness among the aging population. The proportion of the population
over age 65 will increase from 12.4% of the U.S. population in 2000 to
20% by the year 2030 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). During the same time
period, the number of older adults with mental illness is expected to
double to 15 million (Jeste et. al., 1999). (“Shortage of Geriatric Psychiatrists,” American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry, Bethesda, Maryland, 2004, retrieved Saturday, dated 2004, retrieved August 14, 2010)
2030. 7.7 million. Alzheimers. Number of Americans suffering from Alzheimer's disease projected to reach 7.7 million by 2030. “The latest data from the Alzheimer's Association show that 5.1 million Americans have Alzheimer's disease (not including other causes of dementia, such as strokes). In 2030, that number is anticipated to be 7.7 million, and by 2050 — if no prevention or cure is found — 11 million to 16 million people (plus an additional half-million people younger than 65). Dementia results in many difficult behaviors; one of the hardest for caregivers to control is wandering. Most people with dementia — about 60 percent — wander out of their home or care facility at least once, or get lost driving, shopping or going for a walk. Some wander frequently.” (Seattle Times 2007, Liz Taylor, “Ways to prevent dementia patients from wandering,” The Seattle Times, Seattle Washington, June 4, 2007, p. E7)
2030. The number of psychiatrically ill elderly Americans forecast to increase by 275% in 2030. “An ‘unprecedented explosion’ in psychiatric problems among the elderly is about to hit the country, and the U.S. medical system is woefully unprepared, a panel of psychiatric health specialists warned yesterday [September 14, 1999]. Baby Boomers start reaching retirement age in 2011, the experts noted, signaling a new generation of geriatric mental health issues involving such problems as substance abuse, late-onset schizophrenia, anxiety disorders and depression. . . . The health system already serves mentally ill older adults poorly, according to a national "consensus statement" on the problem, issued yesterday by an 11-member panel in the Archives of General Psychiatry.
[Authors of the study] forecast a 275 percent jump in psychiatrically ill elderly from 1970 to 2030, versus only a 67 percent increase in comparable cases among those ages 30-44. ‘Mental illness in the elderly is underdiagnosed and undertreated,’ said lead author Dr. Dilip Jeste, director of geriatric psychiatry at the University of California at San Diego. ‘If we do nothing about it, the cost will be social disaster.’” (Carl T. Hall, Chronicle Science Writer, “Big Rise Forecast In Mental Illness Among Elderly,” The San Francisco Chronicle, September 15, 1999, p. A1 reporting on findings in Consensus Statement on the Upcoming Crisis in Geriatric Mental Health: Research Agenda for the Next 2 Decades, Dilip V. Jeste; George S. Alexopoulos; Stephen J. Bartels; Jeffrey L. Cummings; Joseph J. Gallo; Gary L. Gottlieb; Maureen C. Halpain; Barton W. Palmer; Thomas L. Patterson; Charles F. Reynolds III; Barry D. Lebowitz, Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1999;56:848-853)
Aircraft Manufacturing & Production
2029. Boeing’s North American fleet of airplanes projected to grow to 9,000 by 2029. “[In its 2010 North America market outlook report] Boeing forecasts that air carriers in North America will take delivery of about 7,200 new airplanes over the next 20 years at an investment of $700 billion. New airplane deliveries in Canada and the United States will be driven largely by the need to retire older, less fuel-efficient single-aisle airplanes and regional jets, as airlines replace them with new-generation, more fuel-efficient models. (For the purposes of the Boeing forecast, the North America market consists of the U.S. and Canada. Mexico is included in Boeing's forecast for Latin America.). . . .
Taking retirements of airplanes into account, the North America fleet will grow from 6,590 airplanes today to about 9,000 airplanes by 2029. . . . Airlines are increasingly focusing on airplane age as fuel-thirsty, older airplanes weigh increasingly on earnings. Increased attention to aviation's impact on global climate change also will be a factor in selecting airplanes that produce lower carbon emissions.” (Boeing Projects $700 Billion Commercial Airplanes Market in North America, Boeing Press Release, Montreal, Canada, September 2, 2010)
Medical Care Workforce
2030. Shortage of geriatric psychiatrists projected for 2030. “This demographic transition [from the elderly making up only 12.4% of the U.S. population in 2000 to 20% by 2030] will increase the current shortfall of health care providers with geriatric expertise – and specifically health care providers with geriatric mental health expertise. Since 1990, approximately 2,500 psychiatrists have received subspecialty certification in geriatric psychiatry. This supply of physicians is woefully inadequate to meet the future needs of the nation. According to estimates in the President’s Commission on Mental Health Subcommittee on Older Adults (2003), 'at the current rate of graduating approximately 80 new geriatric psychiatrists each year and an estimated 3% attrition, there will be approximately 2,640 geriatric psychiatrists by the year 2030 or one per 5,682 older adults with a psychiatric disorder.' It has been estimated that 4,000 – 5,000 geriatric psychiatrists who provide patient care are needed (National Institute on Aging, 1997) and an additional 1,220 physician faculty members and 919 non-physician faculty members who provide training in geriatric psychiatry to meet the future demand." (“Shortage of Geriatric Psychiatrists,” American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry, Bethesda, Maryland, 2004, retrieved Saturday, dated 2004, retrieved August 14, 2010)
2030. By 2030 more than 36,000 geriatricians will be needed to provide care for nearly 70 million Americans older than age 65. “[E]ven as the nation is bracing for the number of elderly to soar, there's a critical shortage of geriatricians [doctors trained to care for the elderly]. With the shortage unlikely to ease soon, the American Geriatrics Society is launching new programs to train surgeons and general practitioners to improve their care of older patients. Treating the elderly, especially the very old, can be remarkably different than treating younger patients. In fact, seniors often don't have the usual symptoms a younger person would show for the same disease. . . . Geriatricians are specially trained to deal with those unique senior problems, and coordinate proper care among competing specialists. As for other doctors, a survey found one-third of recent medical school graduates believed their elder care instruction was inadequate. By 2030, the American Geriatrics Society estimates more than 36,000 geriatricians will be needed as the older-than-65 population approaches 70 million. The older-than-85 population will more than quadruple to 18 million by 2050.” (Associated Press, “Focusing on Senior Health Needs - Geriatrics: There's a move to train more doctors to treat medical problems of a growing elderly population,” Los Angeles Times, August 7, 2000)