Heat Waves and Global Warming

Heat Waves • Global Warming Forecasts

Heat Waves, Global Warming

2010 – 2019.  Stanford computer models project a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the period 2010 - 2019.  “The Stanford team also forecast a dramatic spike in extreme seasonal temperatures during the current decade [2010 – 2019]. Temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 could occur four times between now [2010] and 2019 over much of the U.S., according to the researchers.  The 2020s and 2030s could be even hotter, particularly in the American West.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, Noah, and Moetasim Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophysical. Research Letters, (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, August 6, 2010) 

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Between 2010 and 2019 [9 years], temperatures equaling the hottest season on record from 1951 to 1999 [a 48 year period] could occur four times over much of the U.S. (1) 

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 Listen to Texans Seek Relief From Heat Wave

• How will the existing stock of air conditioners perform under a dramatic spike in temperatures and long, intense heat wave conditions forecast for the 2010 - 2019 decade?
• How will long, intense heat waves affect the product life, performance and failure rates of the existing stock of air conditioners?
• Are new air conditioners being designed to operate effectively under the forecasted high intensity heat wave operating conditions?
• If air conditioners fail or outages occur due to heavy air conditioning loads, will communities have plans in place to protect at-risk populations? Elderly aging populations, children in schools, hospitals, etc.?
  

2020.  By 2020 excess U.S. annual summer deaths due to extreme heat events projected to reach 1,981 to 4,100.  “In a study on the impact of future climate scenarios on mortality in 44 cities [SMSAs], Kalkstein and Greene estimate that by 2020, under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, excess annual summer deaths will increase from 1840 to 1981 – 4100 (depending on the GCM used)....” (George Luber, MA, PhD, Michael McGeehin, PhD, MSPH, “Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008;35(5):429–435, November 2008, p. 431 citing findings in Laurence S. Kalkstein and J. Scott Greene, “An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change,” Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 105, No. 1, January 1997, Table 4 and pp. 90-91)

2020.  Heat-related deaths projected to double in some areas.  “Heating of the atmosphere can influence health through several routes. Most directly, it can generate more, stronger and hotter heat waves, which will become especially treacherous if the evenings fail to bring cooling relief. Unfortunately, a lack of nighttime cooling seems to be in the cards; the atmosphere is heating unevenly and is showing the biggest rises at night, in winter and at latitudes higher than about 50 degrees. In some places, the number of deaths related to heat waves is projected to double by 2020. Prolonged heat can, moreover, enhance production of smog and the dispersal of allergens. Both effects have been linked to respiratory symptoms.” (Paul R. Epstein, “Is Global Warming Harmful to Health?,” Scientific American, August, 2000)

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Every summer, more than 6,000 Americans are hospitalized for heat exposure, and 2005 data put the death toll that year at 180, according to the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. (6)

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2020-2029. Stanford study projects that intense heat waves are likely to occur as many as five times between 2020 and 2029 over areas of the western and central U.S.  “Exceptionally long heat waves and other hot events could become commonplace in the United States in the next 30 years [2010 – 2039], according to a new study by Stanford University climate scientists.  ‘Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we see a clear emergence of much more intense, hot conditions in the U.S. within the next three decades,’ said Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford and the lead author of the study. . . . The [study, Intensification of hot extremes in the United States], took two years to complete and is co-authored by Moetasim Ashfaq, a former Stanford postdoctoral fellow now at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

The study comes on the heels of a recent NASA report that concluded that the previous decade, January 2000 to December 2009, was the warmest on record. . . . ‘This was an unprecedented experiment,’ Diffenbaugh said. ‘With the high-resolution [RegCM3] climate model, we can analyze geographic quadrants that are only 15.5 miles [25 kilometers] to a side. No one has ever completed this kind of climate analysis at such a high resolution.’ The results were surprising.

According to the climate models, an intense heat wave – equal to the longest on record from 1951 to 1999 [a period of 48 years] – is likely to occur as many as five times between 2020 and 2029 [a period of 9 years] over areas of the western and central United States. . . .

Besides harming human health and agriculture, these hot, dry conditions could lead to more droughts and wildfires in the near future, he said. And many of these climate change impacts could occur within the next two decades [2010-2030] -- years before the planet is likely to reach the 2-degree C threshold targeted by some governments and climate experts, [Diffenbaugh] added.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, N., and M. Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, published August 6, 2010)

Number of Extremely Hot Seasons Per Decade

Projected heat for U.S. -- Source:  Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, Aug., 6, 2010

2030s. Stanford study projects that during the 2030s most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico could endure at least seven seasons of intense heat waves.  "According to [Stanford University] climate models, an intense heat wave – equal to the longest on record from 1951 to 1999 – is likely to occur [more than five times during the 2030s]. . . .

‘Occurrence of the longest historical heat wave further intensifies in the 2030-2039 period, including greater than five occurrences per decade over much of the western U.S. and greater than three exceedences per decade over much of the eastern U.S.,’ the authors [Noah Diffenbaugh and Moetasim Ashfaq] wrote. . . . From 2030 to 2039, most areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico could endure at least seven seasons equally as intense as the hottest season ever recorded between 1951 and 1999, the researchers concluded [in their study Intensification of hot extremes in the United States]. . . .

The researchers also determined that the hottest daily temperatures of the year from 1980 to 1999 are likely to occur at least twice as often across much of the U.S during the decade of the 2030s.  ‘By the decade of the 2030s, we see persistent, drier conditions over most of the U.S.,’ Diffenbaugh said. . . . Besides harming human health and agriculture, these hot, dry conditions could lead to more droughts and wildfires in the near future, he said.” (Mark Shwartz, communications manager, Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, “Heat waves and extremely high temperatures could be commonplace in the U.S. by 2039, Stanford study finds,” Stanford Report, July 8, 2010 citing findings in Diffenbaugh, N., and M. Ashfaq. Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., (in press) DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043888, August 6, 2010)

Number of Extremely Hot Seasons Per Decade, 2030-2039

"By 2039, most of the U.S. could experience at least four seasons equally as intense as the hottest season ever recorded from 1951-1999, according to Stanford University climate scientists. In most of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, the number of extremely hot seasons could be as high as seven." Source:  Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, Aug., 6, 2010.

Does not include the effects of contributions of carbon dioxide and methane released into the atmosphere from permafrost melting.

Heat Wave Forecasts - Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq

Adapted from Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, Aug., 6, 2010.  Does not include the heat-producing impacts of contributions of carbon dioxide and methane released into the atmosphere from permafrost melting and thermokarst erosion, methane released from freshwater lakes and rivers or methane escaping from shale gas drilling and hydraulic fracturing 'fracking' operations.

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Heat wave impact and policy questions:

• Are new building codes being adopted based on projected heat wave conditions or are they still based on the presumption of historic weather and temperature patterns?
  
• How will exceptionally long heat waves impact peak power demand and new peaker power plant planning and construction assumptions?
• How will long, high intensity heat waves affect transmission line efficiencies? 
  
• How will they affect power outage rates driven by higher air conditioning usage? 
• How will the volume of greenhouse gas emissions be affected by higher air conditioning usage in heat wave regions where electricity is generated from coal-fired power plants?
  
• How will high intensity heat waves impact water supplies and water consumption rates?  
• What will be the impact of prolonged heat waves on crops, agricultural productivity and irrigation requirements?
  
• How will  prolonged high intensity heat waves affect the availability of water for hydroelectric power production?
  
• How will exceptionally long heat waves coinciding with predicted water shortages, impact the availability of water supplies for suppression of predicted wildfires?
• How will exceptionally long heat waves impact 'at-risk' elderly populations that have elected to retire in States impacted by intense heat waves? 
• What percentage of homes in predicted severe heat wave areas will be without adequate air conditioning, backup protection or evacuation plans in the event of outages?  
• How will these heat waves affect heat-related fatality rates and hospital personnel and infrastructure capacities to handle higher patient loads?
• How will they affect population migration patterns into or out of the high intensity heat wave States?
• How will forecast underestimates affect the magnitude of heat wave impacts?

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2040.  By 2040 heat waves like the lethal 2003 heat wave are likely to take place in Europe every other year.  “Last week, Paul Della-Marta, a researcher at Switzerland's Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, presented findings at an international conference on climate science in Gwatt, Switzerland, showing that since 1880 the duration of heat waves in Western Europe has doubled and the number of unusually hot days in the region has nearly tripled. In a separate 2004 study, researchers at Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research produced computer models showing that greenhouse gas emissions had doubled the likelihood of events like the lethal 2003 European heat wave, and that by 2040 it is likely such heat waves will take place there every other year.  

And researchers at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., reported this week [week of August 4, 2006] that nighttime summer temperatures across the country have been unusually high for the past eight years, a record streak.” (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post Staff Writer, “More Frequent Heat Waves Linked to Global Warming - U.S. and European Researchers Call Long Hot Spells Likely,” The Washington Post, August 4, 2006) 

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Climate experts predict that there is a 50% chance that the average temperature of the world will increase by 5° Celsius (11°F).  A 5° Celsius change is the difference between our world today and the world during the last ice age. 

So think about what 5 degrees C will mean going the other way.  A very different world.  So if you want that for your kids and grand kids, we can continue doing what we’re doing. (7)

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2040.  By 2040 more than half of Europe's summers are likely to top deadly record temperatures of 2003 under scenarios developed by UK researchers.  “Europe's summer of 2003 seared itself into the record books as the hottest, deadliest summer the continent has endured in at least 500 years.  Temperatures in Paris topped 104 degrees. Even nightfall brought little or no relief.  Now, a new analysis [Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003] from researchers at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and Oxford University in Britain suggests more than half of the risk that the heat wave would occur can be traced to human influence on climate.   If concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse" gases from power plants and factories continue to increase, even at a modest pace, they say, by 2040 more than half of Europe's summers are likely [to] top those record temperatures of 2003. By 2100, the summer of 2003 could even stand as an unusually cool one.”  (Peter N. Spotts, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, “Heat wave risk rising with emissions,” The Christian Science Monitor, Boston, Massachusetts, December 2, 2004 citing findings in Stott, P. A., D. A. Stone, and M. R. Allen. 2004. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614.  Corrigem. Nature, 436, 1200)

2040.  Heat waves predicted to sweep through many parts of Europe by 2040.  “Climate change experts predict that heat waves will sweep through many parts of Europe by 2040, according to the Met Office's Hadley Centre, a U.K. climate-research center — creating serious impacts on freshwater resources.” (No author credited, “Shrinking Swiss Glacier,” National Geographic News, March 19, 2010)

2045.  Climate change heat events in the year 2045 projected to cause 156 additional deaths in the greater Seattle area.  “Climate change in Washington will likely lead to significantly more heat- and air pollution-related deaths throughout this century.  Projected warming would likely result in . . . 156 additional deaths in 2045 in the greater Seattle area alone..”  (Littell, J.S., M. McGuire Elsner, L.C. Whitely Binder, and A.K. Snover (eds), The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, A report by The Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, June 2009, p. 2)

2050.  By 2050 excess U.S. annual summer deaths due to extreme heat events projected to reach up to 3,190 to 4,748.  “In a study on the impact of future climate scenarios on mortality in 44 cities [SMSAs], Kalkstein and Greene estimate that by [2050], under a business-as-usual emissions scenario . . . up to 3190 – 4748 excess deaths will occur each summer (depending on the GCM used).” (George Luber, MA, PhD, Michael McGeehin, PhD, MSPH, “Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008;35(5):429–435, November 2008, p. 431 citing findings in Laurence S. Kalkstein and J. Scott Greene, “An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change,” Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 105, No. 1, January 1997, Table 4 and pp. 90-91)

2050.  Deaths from extreme heat or cold could triple in major U.S. cities from 1993 to 2050.  “Scientists and public health officials said they are particularly worried about an increase in summer nighttime temperatures because people tend to recover from excessive heat exposure at night.  Joel D. Scheraga, national program director for the U.S. Global Change Research Program of the Environmental Protection Agency, has delivered presentations indicating that with increasing temperatures and population growth, deaths from extreme heat or cold could as much as triple in major American cities from 1993 to 2050.  Scheraga said the EPA chart was not a clear prediction, because federal, state and local officials are working to better protect citizens from the dangers of extreme heat and cold.  Nearly 100,000 people have downloaded the EPA's "Excessive Heat Events Guidebook" since it was posted online six weeks ago.  ‘These are avoidable deaths. There's an opportunity to save lives,’ Scheraga said.

‘With climate change, with warming and an intense hydrological cycle, the water cycle, we do in fact expect more extremes, more flooding and more heat waves.’  Since mid-July, 179 Americans, most of them Californians, have died in the current heat wave; more than 52,000 died during the 2003 episode in Europe, where air conditioning is less common.” (Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post Staff Writer, “More Frequent Heat Waves Linked to Global Warming - U.S. and European Researchers Call Long Hot Spells Likely,” The Washington Post, August 4, 2006)

2050 (Mid-century).  By mid-century, air quality worsened by climate change in Seattle, Washington's King County area is projected to cause 132 additional summer deaths annually.  “Climate change in Washington will likely lead to significantly more heat- and air pollution-related deaths throughout this century.  By mid-century, King County [Seattle area] will likely experience 132 additional deaths between May and September annually due to worsened air quality caused by climate change.”  (Littell, J.S., M. McGuire Elsner, L.C. Whitely Binder, and A.K. Snover (eds), The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, A report by The Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, June 2009, p. 2)

2050.  Americans projected to suffer 1.6 million new cases of kidney stones by 2050 as a result of global warming.  “Global warming could trigger a rise in kidney stones, resulting in 1.6 million new cases by 2050, University of Texas researchers warned Monday [in a study published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences entitled Climate-related increase in the prevalence of urolithiasis in the United States].  Nationwide, kidney stones strike about 12% of all men and 7% of women. Warm Southeastern states get 50% more cases than in the Northeast, forming a belt of high-risk states. The study says global warming will drive this ‘kidney stone belt’ north. 

‘We see a relationship between kidney stones and temperatures everywhere,’ says study co-author Margaret Pearle of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical School in Dallas. ‘Even in places with air conditioning, warmer temperatures mean more stones.’  Kidney stones result from salts crystallizing in the kidneys, often triggered by dehydration, causing painful blockages.  The U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned last year [2007] that industrial emissions of greenhouse gases probably would raise average global temperatures 3 to 7 degrees this century.”  (Dan Vergano, USA Today, “Kidney stone cases could heat up - Global warming cited as culprit,” USA Today, Arlington, Virginia, July 15, 2008, p. 1A)  

2070 to 2099.  Annual number of heat wave days in Los Angeles projected to increase from 12 days to 44 – 95 days for the period 2070 – 2099.  “Analyses of U.S. climate change scenarios through General Circulation Models (GCMs) project that . . . the number of annual heatwave days in Los Angeles, for the 2070 to 2099 time period, will increase from 12 to 44–95." (George Luber, MA, PhD, Michael McGeehin, PhD, MSPH, “Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008;35(5):429–435, November 2008, p. 431) 

2080 – 2099.  Chicago projected to experience a 25% increase in heat waves.  “Analyses of U.S. climate change scenarios through General Circulation Models (GCMs) project that, for the period 2080 to 2099, Chicago will experience a 25% increase in the number of heatwaves.” (George Luber, MA, PhD, Michael McGeehin, PhD, MSPH, “Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008;35(5):429–435, November 2008, p. 431 citing findings in Meehl, Gerald A., Claudia Tibaldi, "More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century," Science, Volume 305, August 13, 2004, p. 995) 

2100.  As many as 95 heat wave days and 1400 heat-related deaths projected for Los Angeles by 2100.  “A fresh look at California's climate future suggests some profound changes may be coming as global warming takes hold, including extended heat waves in Los Angeles, disrupted ecosystems in the mountains and chaos in California's water-supply system. [In their study, Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, which was published online Monday, August 16, 2004] in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers] adapted two of the latest computer models [Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively] of global climate change to determine how California might be affected under two different scenarios -- one optimistic [B1] and one pessimistic [A1fi] -- for emissions of heat- trapping greenhouse gases. 

. . .Daily life in Los Angeles already [2004] includes about a dozen ‘heat-wave days’ a year, defined as three or more days in a row when temperatures climb above 90 degrees. Under the worst-case heating outlook, there would be as many as 95 such days by the end of the century [2100], producing about 1,400 more heat-related deaths.”  (Carl T. Hall, Chronicle Science Writer, “California - Global warming clouds the future - But experts say it's not too late to cut harmful emissions,” San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco, California, August 17, 2004 citing findings in (Katherine Hayhoe et al, Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, August 24, 2004, Vol. 101 No. 34, pp. 12422–12427) 

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