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Global Warming Climate Change Forecasts - 2090

Heat Waves | Heat-Related Deaths

2090.  2080 – 2099.  Chicago projected to experience a 25% increase in heat waves.  “Analyses of U.S. climate change scenarios through General Circulation Models (GCMs) project that, for the period 2080 to 2099, Chicago will experience a 25% increase in the number of heatwaves.” (George Luber, MA, PhD, Michael McGeehin, PhD, MSPH, “Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008;35(5):429–435, November 2008, p. 431 citing findings in Meehl, Gerald A., Claudia Tibaldi. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, Volume 305, August 13, 2004, p. 995)

2090s.  Annual heat-related deaths in Los Angeles projected to increase by 2 – 7 times 1990 levels.  “A study of climate change impacts in California projects that, by the 2090s, annual heat-related deaths in Los Angeles would increase by two to three times under a lower [greenhouse gas] emissions scenario and by five to seven times under a higher emissions scenario, compared to a 1990s baseline of about 165 deaths [330 to 1,155 deaths]. These estimates assume that people will have become somewhat more accustomed to higher temperatures. Without such acclimatization, these estimates are projected to be about 20 to 25 percent higher.”  (Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, (eds.). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, 2009, p. 91 citing findings in Hayhoe, K., D. Cayan, C.B. Field, P.C. Frumhoff, E.P. Maurer, N.L. Miller, S.C. Moser, S.H. Schneider, K.N. Cahill, E.E. Cleland, L. Dale, R. Drapek, R.M. Hanemann, L.S. Kalkstein, J. Lenihan, C.K. Lunch, R.P. Neilson, Scott C. Sheridan, and J.H. Verville, 2004: Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(34), 12422-12427) 

Water Shortages | Water Scarcity

2090.  20% of California’s water supply projected to be lost as a result of melting snowpack caused by global warming.  “California's largest single source of water could be severely threatened over the next century if global warming proceeds as scientists expect. That's the conclusion of a group of researchers who study California's Sierra Nevada Mountains. They say just a few degrees' rise in temperature could mean less snow in the mountains, depriving the state of badly needed water in the spring and summer. . . [Noah Knowles of  the Scripps Institution of Oceanography] is one of the researchers who presented their global warming forecasts to California water managers on Wednesday [June 20, 2001]. 

He says a projected temperature increase of two to four degrees Celsius over the next century could lead to some dramatic changes.  ‘By 2060, we see a loss of about a third of the state's snowpack. And by 2090, [Knowles says] we see a loss of about half of the [state of California’s] snowpack. And that's about 20 percent of the state's water supply. That's about seven cubic kilometers, which is about five to six million acre feet.’ 

Those figures may not mean much to most people, but that's roughly how much water California now takes from the Colorado River, one of the main sources for the southern part of the state. And this loss would happen during a period when California's population is forecast to grow by millions. However, scientists who study the climate caution that it's very hard to predict with accuracy what parts of the Earth will heat up and how quickly.” (Andy Bowers, “Analysis: Scientists say global warming could affect California's drinking water supply,” NPR All Things Considered, June 22, 2001) 

2090 Global Warming Carbon Dioxide Levels

2090.  Year when projected CO2 content of the earth’s atmosphere will exceed 600 ppm.  “The concentration of carbon dioxide in the air [that rose from 12,000 year old ice drilled from the Greenland ice sheet] was about 280 parts per million.  Today it stands at more than 350 parts per million, and at the rate we are going, within the next 100 years [2090] it will have topped 600.”  (Longevity, February 1990, p. 70)

Climate Change Flooding | Global Warming Floods

2090. Megafloods that normally would hit North America once every 100 years could occur by 2090 as frequently as every three to four years based on 2007 IPCC projections and assumptions.   “The draft of the report [by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] also warned that the United States' two biggest cities, Los Angeles and New York, are at heightened risk for a combination of rising sea levels and violent storms, making it possible that by 2090, ‘megafloods that normally would hit North America once every 100 years could occur as frequently as every three to four years.’” (Maya Grinberg, “That sinking feeling,” Risk Management, August 1, 2007 citing findings of Field, C.B., L.D. Mortsch, M. Brklacich, D.L. Forbes, P. Kovacs, J.A. Patz, S.W. Running and M.J. Scott, 2007: North America. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, p. 633) 

Food and Agriculture in 2090

2090-2099.  China’s agriculture and food supplies projected to be dramatically disrupted by extreme weather events“Climate change and extreme weather events pose a grave challenge to the country's [China’s] food supply, agricultural researchers have warned.  Gu Lianhong, a senior researcher with Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the US, said the lab's research had shown climate change will cause China's per capita grain output will dramatically drop after 2020, even taking technological progress into consideration. The study suggests the projected geographical pattern of earth's surface temperature will dramatically increase in the late 21st century (2090-2099). This will cause more extreme weather and climate events to impact such industries as agriculture, Gu said.  He stressed that increasing droughts and heavy precipitation, more intense tropical cyclones and warmer days will very likely happen globally. ‘These [increasing droughts and heavy precipitation caused climate change] are all closely related with grain output,’ Gu said.”  (Wang Qian, “Climate threatens China's food supply,” Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, China, June 22, 2010)

2090.  An 80% decrease in non-irrigated soybean yields projected to occur in the Southeastern U.S. by 2090.  “The Southeast [Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi, Kentucky and Florida] is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change [because of its expansive coastline and agricultural economy], and the effects could include more heat waves, shrinking wildlife populations and damage to trees, according to a draft of a new report [Climate Change Impacts in the Southeastern United States, Draft Discussion Paper] from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. . . . According to the report, the Southeast is vulnerable because it has the most coastline to lose in the United States — 41 percent of the area in the lower 48 states exposed to sea level rise and intensified hurricanes. . . . The region also could face the largest losses of crops in the nation. Consultants predict a 10- to 30-percent decrease of non-irrigated soybean yields by about 2030, and an 80 percent loss by 2090.” (Pam Sohn and Jaime Sarrio, “Southeast may be vulnerable to worst of global warming's effects,” The Tennessean, Chattanooga, Tennessee, July 22, 2010 citing findings in Dr. Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Dr. Kristie Ebi, Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom, Dr. Paul Kirshen, Stratus Consulting, "Climate Change Impacts in the Southeastern United States, Draft Discussion Paper," prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, January 26, 2010)


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Climate Change 2090 - Global Warming 2090