Cost of Climate Change

Climate Change Costs

2011 - Climate Change Costs

2011.  NOAA projects cost of 2011 weather/climate disasters to exceed $50 billion.  “A typical year in this country features three or four weather disasters whose costs exceed $1 billion each. But this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has tallied a dozen such events, including wildfires in the Southwest, floods in multiple regions of the country and a deadly spring tornado season.  And the agency has not finished counting. The final costs are certain to exceed $50 billion [See $52 billion].  ‘I’ve been a meteorologist 30 years and never seen a year that comes close to matching 2011 for the number of astounding, extreme weather events,’ Jeffrey Masters, Ph.D., meteorologist, a co-founder of the popular Web site Weather Underground, said last month. ‘Looking back in the historical record, which goes back to the late 1800s, I can’t find anything that compares, either.’” (Justin Gillis, “Harsh Political Reality Slows Climate Studies Despite Extreme Year,” The New York Times, December 24, 2011)

"In my weather career spanning four decades, I've never seen a year quite like 2011. 

Sure, we've had years with extreme flooding, extreme hurricanes, extreme winter snowstorms and even extreme tornado outbreaks, but I can't remember a year like [2011] in which we experienced record-breaking extremes of nearly every conceivable type of weather."

2015 - Cost of Global Warming | Climate Change Costs 

2020 - Climate Change Costs 

2020.  IEA projection that global spending on clean energy will need to increase to $23.9 trillion by 2020 in order to avoid missing climate targets.  “Global investments in clean energy need to double by 2020 to avoid missing climate change targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday [June 11, 2012], calling on governments to spend more on technologies such as carbon storage and solar power. Some $23.9 trillion in investments are required by 2020 . . . when governments aim to keep the average rise in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius, the Paris-based organisation said. . . . But cash-strapped governments hit by the recession may take comfort in the IEA's assessment that every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate three dollars in future fuel savings, with total savings offsetting investments by 2025. ‘Let me be straight. Our ongoing failure to realise the full potential of clean energy technology is alarming,’ IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a report. ‘Continued heavy reliance on a narrow set of technologies and fossil fuels is a significant threat to energy security, stable economic growth and global welfare, as well as to the environment,’ she said.” (Michel Rose, “IEA calls for doubling of clean energy spending by 2020, Reuters, Paris, France, Monday, June 11, 2012)

2020.  Climate change could cost up to 3% of global GDP by 2020 if effective measures are not taken.  “‘The business and political leaders should realise that measures to bring down emission levels would not cost more than 0.2 per cent of the global GDP, but it could cost up to 3 per cent of world GDP by 2020, and 5 per cent by 2030, if the temperature goes by 2-4 degree Celsius,’ [R K Pachauri] the head of the UN's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on climate change said.”  (R K Pachauri, addressing the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland quoted in Manoj Kumar, “Climate change may cost 5 pc global GDP by 2030: Pachauri,” PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., January 24, 2008)

2020.  A single storm occurring in 2020 could cause damage losses on the order of $500 billion.  “To better understand the potential for catastrophic damage from future hurricanes, scientists are looking to the past.  And the future looks very expensive, the scientists said this week at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union. With wealth and property values increasing, and more people moving to vulnerable coasts, by the year 2020 a single storm could cause losses of $500 billion - several times the damage inflicted by Hurricane Katrina.” (Kenneth Chang, “In Study, a History Lesson on the Costs of Hurricanes,” The New York Times, December 11, 2005)

2020.  Increases in ground level ozone caused by higher global warming temperatures could cost the U.S. approximately $5.4 billion in 2020.  “Unchecked global warming could threaten public health and increase health costs by exacerbating ground-level ozone, according to a peer-reviewed report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).  The report, “Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution,” found climate change-induced ozone increases could result in 2.8 million additional serious respiratory illnesses, 5,100 additional infants and seniors hospitalized with serious breathing problems, and 944,000 additional missed school days in the United States in 2020.  All told, these and other health-related impacts could cost approximately $5.4 billion [2008 dollars]."  (“Report Projects Health Impacts and Costs from Worsening Ozone Pollution in a Warming World,” Union of Concerned Scientists press release, June 2, 2011 announcing findings in Elizabeth Martin Perera and Todd Sanford, Climate Change and Your Health:  Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, June 2011)

State Rankings: Health Care Costs with a Ground Level Ozone
Global Warming Climate Penalty of 2 ppb in 2020*

Source: UCS, Climate Change & Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone, 6/2011

2030 - Global Warming Costs  

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The sea ice is decreasing faster than all the models predicted. . . [M]aybe we are getting at this tipping point. (1)

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2030.  Climate change could cost up to 5% of global GDP by 2030 if effective steps are not taken.  “World renowned Indian environmentalist R K Pachauri has warned the international business and political leaders that climate change could cost up to 5 per cent of global GDP by 2030 if effective steps were not taken in time.  ‘The business and political leaders should realise that measures to bring down emission levels would not cost more than 0.2 per cent of the global GDP, but it could cost up to 3 per cent of world GDP by 2020, and 5 per cent by 2030, if the temperature goes by 2-4 degree Celsius,’ the head of the UN's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on climate change said.”  (R K Pachauri, addressing the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland quoted in Manoj Kumar, “Climate change may cost 5 pc global GDP by 2030: Pachauri,” PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., January 24, 2008)

2030.  Estimated additional global investment of up to $210 billion required in 2030 to reduce GHG emissions.  “It is estimated that global additional investment and financial flows of USD 200–210 billion will be necessary in 2030 to return global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to current levels.”  (Report on the analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change, United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention, Fourth workshop, Vienna, Austria, Dialogue working paper 8, August 8, 2007)

2030.  Annual costs of $67 billion projected for 2030 to cover the food supply, intrastructure and health care relief costs caused by rising sea levels.  “Rising sea levels are likely to prompt mass migrations, armed conflicts and sanitary crises, requiring urgent planning to guarantee food and other essentials and at least $67 billion annually in 2030 to help people in developing countries adapt to climate change, the United Nations said in a report to a conference on climate change in Vienna.  The money is needed to ensure access to food supplies, health care and infrastructure.”  (Bloomberg News “Conflicts, crises foreseen - UN says rising sea levels from global warming will stir mass migrations, tensions; urges urgent planning,” Newsday, Long Island, New York, August 31, 2007, p. A40)

2030.  Global warming projected to add as much $6.1 billion in repair and replacement costs to Alaska’s infrastructure by 2030.  “Many of Alaska's roads, runways, railroads and water and sewer systems will wear out more quickly and cost more to repair or replace because of climate change, according to a study released yesterday.  Higher temperatures, melting permafrost, a reduction in polar ice and increased flooding are expected to raise the repair and replacement cost of thousands of infrastructure projects as much as $6.1 billion for a total of nearly $40 billion - about a 20 percent increase - from now to 2030, according to the study, by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage. . . .

The study is the first of its kind in Alaska, and its authors emphasize that it does not project costs for things like moving villages, protecting the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, fighting wildfires or protecting private property that may be affected.  ‘There are a million other issues related to climate change,’ said Peter Larsen, a natural resource economist at the Institute for Social and Economic Research and the lead researcher for the report.” (“Study Sees Climate Change Impact on Alaska,” The New York Times, June 28, 2007 citing findings in Peter Larsen, Principal Investigator, O. Scott Goldsmith, ISER-UAA, Orson Smith, UAA-Engineering, Meghan Wilson, ISER-UAA, Ken Strzepek, U. of Colorado-Engineering, Paul Chinowsky, U. of Colorado-Engineering, and Ben Saylor, ISER-UAA, Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change, Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, June 2007, pp. 1, 7, 69, 74, 81)

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We have already reached a tipping point where we will soon see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer. 

There's nothing we can do about that. It could be in 2015.  It could be in 2025.  It almost doesn't matter.  It'll happen in this generation. 

As a result, the whole weather system could change. (2)

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2050 - Cost of Global Warming 

2050.  California agricultural revenues projected to drop 50% by 2050 due to climate change.  “In addition, crop yields are projected to fall across the state; revenues are projected to drop by nearly 50% by 2050, from $2.78 billion in 2006. Compared to agricultural revenues which are calculated to be historically possible for the year 2050, Sacramento will likely see a 15.5% drop, San Joaquin, 10.4%, Tulare, 9.1% and the southern California region a 12.2% drop. Californians in these regions alone stand to lose over $3 billion under a business as usual situation.” (ASP 2011, Pay Now, Pay Later: California, American Security Project, Washington DC, April 13, 2011, p. 3 citing findings in CEC CCCC 2009, Richard Howitt et al, Estimating the Economic Impacts of Agricultural Yield Related Changes for California, California Climate Change Center, California Energy Commission, Sacramento, California, August 2009, vii, 16-17, 26-27)

2050.  IEA projection that global spending on clean energy will need to increase to $140 trillion by 2050 in order to avoid missing climate targets.  “Global investments in clean energy need to [increase to $140 trillion by 2050] to avoid missing climate change targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday [June 11, 2012], calling on governments to spend more on technologies such as carbon storage and solar power. Some . . . $140 trillion [in investments are required] by the middle of this century [2050], when governments aim to keep the average rise in global temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius, the Paris-based organisation said. World nations will have to spend from now to 2050 $36 trillion more than what is currently foreseen, with China having to spend the most. . . . ‘Let me be straight. Our ongoing failure to realise the full potential of clean energy technology is alarming,’ IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a report. ‘Continued heavy reliance on a narrow set of technologies and fossil fuels is a significant threat to energy security, stable economic growth and global welfare, as well as to the environment,’ she said.” (Michel Rose, “IEA calls for doubling of clean energy spending by 2020, Reuters, Paris, France, Monday, June 11, 2012 reporting findings in International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 - Executive Summary, OECD/IEA, Paris, France, June 2012)

2050.  Climate disruption projected to place $7.4 trillion of U.S. assets in jeopardy as a result of 20 inches of sea level rise by 2050.  “Rising sea levels due to global warming in the next few decades could put trillions of dollars in U.S. assets at risk, according to a report [Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector] released Tuesday [November 24, 2009].  The joint report, released by German insurer Allianz S.E. and the World Wildlife Fund, said the planet’s atmosphere is close to dangerous temperature thresholds, or “tipping points,” that could cause devastating environmental and economic consequences.  According to the report, a sea level rise of 20 inches by 2050, as predicted by climate scientists, could jeopardize roughly $7.4 trillion of U.S. assets.” (Colleen McCarthy, “Climate change could risk trillions in U.S. assets: Report,” BusinessInsurance.com, November 24, 2009)

2050.  About $1.4 trillion worth of U.S. coastal-area assets are at risk due to storm surge caused by global warming.  “About $1.4 trillion worth of U.S. coastal-area assets are at risk due to storm surge from a one-in-100-year event, the report [Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector] released by German insurer Allianz S.E. and the World Wildlife Fund] said.  The report ranked Miami, New York, New Orleans and Boston among the U.S. cities with the greatest asset exposure by mid-century due to global warming effects.” (Colleen McCarthy, “Climate change could risk trillions in U.S. assets: Report,” BusinessInsurance.com, November 24, 2009 citing findings in [Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector]

2060 - Commercial Fisheries

2060.  End of commercial fishing by 2060.  "[B]usiness as usual means that in 50 years there may be no coral reefs, and no commercial fishing, because the fish will simply be gone."  (Sylvia Earle, How to protect the oceans,"TEDTalks, Long Beach, California, February 19, 2009, Track 12:11)  

2070 - Climate Change Costs

2070.  Complete disappearance of snowpacks in the northern Rocky Mountains by 2070.  “Fyfe and Flato (1999) modeled the effects of climate change on snowpacks in the northern Rocky Mountains during the 21st century. Their simulations showed shrinking snowpacks during the first two-thirds of the century with complete disappearance by 2070. They based their simulations in part on the Canadian Coupled Global Circulation Model which projects higher temperature increases than the British Hadley Circulation Model (Table 3.8).” (Frederic H. Wagner et al, Preparing for a Changing Climate - The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Climate Change Assessment, A Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Utah State University, 2003, p. 139)  

2070.  Estimated financial impact of a 100-year coastal flood impacting 150 million people projected to be $35 trillion by 2070.  “The impact of climate change and urban development could more than triple the number of people around the world exposed to coastal flooding by 2070, with Kolkata being the most vulnerable city followed by Mumbai, a new report [Ranking of the World's Cities Most Exposed to Coastal Flooding Today and in the Future prepared by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). . . . Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes, [the report] found that around 150 million people could be exposed to a one-in-100 year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 40 million today. The estimated financial impact of such an event would also rise USD 35 trillion by 2070, up from USD 3 trillion today.”  (Dharam Shourie, “By 2070, Kolkata, Mumbai to be most vulnerable to coastal flood,” New York, PTI - The Press Trust of India Ltd., December 5, 2007) 

2070.  Projected worst case global warming temperatures make all of Australia’s ski resorts unable to operate at a profit by 2070.  “Many low altitude ski resorts face economic hardship and even ruin as a result of global warming, a new study [Climate Change and Winter Sports: Environmental and Economical Threats] launched today by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) concludes.  Experts at the University of Zurich say that the levels of snow falling in lower lying mountain areas will become increasingly unpredictable and unreliable over the coming decades. . . . The internationally celebrated winter sports town of Kitzbuehl [Austria], popular among the rich and famous, faces extinction as a top ski resort. Kitzbuehl is an example of a resort lying at the low altitude of 760 metres [2,493 feet], a height that will make it acutely vulnerable to declining and less frequent snow.  

The study says that ski resorts in North America and Australia will be impacted too. Indeed, none of Australia’s ski resorts will be economically viable by 2070 under a worst case scenario.  (Under a worst case scenario, in which temperatures climb by 3.4 degrees C by 2070, none of Australia’s existing ski resorts would be operating at a profit.)  The findings have come from Rolf Burki and colleagues at the University of Zurich. They are being presented today at the V World Conference on Sport and the Environment taking place in Turin, Italy, which is the host city for the 2006 Winter Games. . . . The research has used temperature forecasts produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of some 2,000 scientists.

. . . The IPCC estimates that temperatures will rise by between 1.4 degrees C and 5.8 degrees C by 2100 unless action is taken to significantly reduce emissions from sources such as vehicles, industry, offices and homes.  Global warming is expected to be stronger on land areas in the northern hemisphere during the winter months, making mountain-based winter tourism acutely vulnerable.” (“Many Ski Resorts Heading Downhill as a Result of Global Warming,” United Nations Environment Programme, Turin/Nairobi, Africa, December 2, 2003 citing findings in Rolf Bürki, Hans Elsasser, Bruno Abegg, Climate Change and Winter Sports: Environmental and Economical Threats, 5th World Conference on Sport and Environment, Turin, Italy, United Nations Environment Programme, December 2-3, 2003)

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2085 - Global Warming Cost 

2085. Meeting increased urban demand for water in California projected to cost the state $316 million to $5 billion per year by 2085.  “Water System and Agriculture.  Major climate change models predict winter snowpack will decline and snowmelt will occur earlier, which will result in greater runoff. The ability to store water in aquifers for later withdrawal may be compromised. Simultaneously, the demand for water is rising in the region. Ground-water withdrawals increased significantly in recent years in many Western states – 324% in Nevada, 147% in New Mexico, 208% in Utah, and 52% in California.  Meeting increased urban demand for water in California is estimated to cost the state $316 million to $5 billion per year by 2085.”  (CIER, Regional Highlight: West - The US Economic Impacts of Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction, Center of Integrative Environmental Research at the University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, October 2007)  

2100 - Cost of Climate Change

2100.  Protecting developed areas of U.S. coastlines from a 1-meter sea level rise projected to cost $73 billion to 111 billion through 2100.  “Published estimates of sea level rise due to global warming generally range from 0.5 to 2.0 meters (1.5 to 7 feet) by 2100.  Sea level rise could be greater than or less than this range because uncertainties exist regarding the rate of atmospheric warming, glacial processes, oceanic uptake of heat, precipitation in polar areas, and other variables. . . . Given the high property values of developed coastlines in the United States, it is likely that measures would be taken to hold back the sea along most developed shores. 

Preliminary estimates suggest that the cumulative capital cost (including response to current sea level rise) of protecting currently developed areas would be $73 to $111 billion (in 1988 dollars) through 2100 for a 1-meter global rise (compared with $4 to $6 billion to protect developed areas from current trends in sea level rise). A 1-meter sea level rise would lead to a cumulative inundation of 7,000 square miles of dryland -- an area the size of Massachusetts (see Table 1, p. xxxvii of report). If the oceans continue to rise at current rates, approximately 3,000 square miles of dryland would be lost.” (U.S. EPA, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States,  EPA-230-05-89-050, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, December 1989, p. xxxvi)

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Climate Change Costs - Cost of Global Warming